The Francis Years — Part 1

On April 28, 2014, after a season that saw the team come in 24th out of 30 teams in the league and out of the playoffs for a fifth straight season despite being only eight seasons removed from a Stanley Cup victory, the Carolina Hurricanes organization shook up its core by promoting franchise icon Ron Francis to general manager. The move signified a new era with the Hurricanes, who under previous general manager Jim Rutherford seemed to always be “one player away” and in doing so were never bad enough to pull the trigger on a rebuild, but never good enough to actually put forward a competitive team.

Eight years later, the Hurricanes are coming off their fourth straight playoff appearance, a second straight season at the top of their division, and a perennial Stanley Cup contender. Ron Francis, however, saw none of this success, losing his general manager role on March 7th, 2018, then seeing his contract terminated less than two months later.

On the surface, Francis’ tenure as Hurricanes GM seems bittersweet — dealt a poor hand, forced to rebuild a franchise from the ground up, and then disposed before seeing the fruits of his labor. But how much of the current Hurricanes can be traced back to the moves Francis and his team did (or didn’t do) in those four seasons?

In Part 1, we are taking a look at the four drafts where Ron Francis was in charge and the fates of those players. In Part 2, we will take a look at the free agent signings and trades that shaped the team more immediately between 2014 and 2018.

For this analysis, we’re going to look at actual players acquired via the draft, and the contributions those players made for the Hurricanes, not their career as a whole. The draft is used to strengthen the organization and picks are made with the intention that they will be a part of the organization in the future. Identifying whether a prospect is worth holding on to or sending them to another organization for assets has more to do with trading than drafting, which will be the focus of another post. In this exercise, however, we’ll be looking at four drafts — 2014 through 2017.

2014

1-7 Haydn Fleury, D, Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
2-37 Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Plymouth Whalers (OHL)
3-67 Warren Foegele, LW, St. Andrew’s College (High-ON)
4-96 Josh Wesley, D, Plymouth Whalers (OHL)
4-97 Lucas Wallmark, C, Lulea HF (Sweden)
5-127 Clark Bishop, C, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL)
7-187 Kyle Jenkins, D, Soo Greyhounds (OHL)

Francis’ first draft choice as general manager of the Hurricanes was a questionable selection at the time, and only looked worse as the seasons passed. Defenseman Haydn Fleury was a first round talent, but not necessarily 7th overall talent. However with a defensive prospect line that was led by Ryan Murphy and trailed by the likes of Keegan Lowe, Rasmus Rissanen, Michal Jordan, and Danny Biega, Francis felt the need to draft out of need instead of best available, electing to draft the defenseman Fleury over forwards Brendan Perlini, Nikolaj Ehlers, William Nylander, and Nick Ritchie. Fleury would return to junior for his two slide years, then spending a season in Charlotte before taking a third pairing role for the Canes during the 2017–18 season. During that time, Fleury would see Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and future 1st round selection Noah Hanifin pass by him on the organizational depth chart. Only really given one season in a regular role for the Canes (that 2017–18 season), Fleury bounced in and out of the lineup for a few more seasons before being traded at the 2021 trade deadline for a few months of Jani Hakanpaa.

Other draft choices saw mixed results, but this is the group that has seen the most NHL time. 2nd round selection Alex Nedeljkovic had a rough start to his professional career, spending some time in the ECHL before eventually becoming Charlotte’s #1 goaltender on their way to a Calder Cup championship. Nedeljkovic was thrust into a starting role for the Canes during the 2020–21 season due to injuries to goaltenders Petr Mrazek and James Reimer and made the All-Rookie Team in 2021, then was dealt to Detroit where he has since struggled. Warren Foegele spent three seasons with the Hurricanes as a bottom six forward before being dealt to Edmonton before the 2021–22 season for defenseman Ethan Bear. Lucas Wallmark played nearly two full seasons with the Hurricanes before being dealt to Florida in a deal to acquire Vincent Trocheck, but didn’t stick in the league and is currently playing in Switzerland after spending a season in the KHL. Clark Bishop has played 47 NHL games in six professional seasons and recently signed a two-way deal with Calgary that will see him provide center depth this coming season. Josh Wesley played in the AHL and ECHL with the org before they parted ways in the 2019 offseason. He played last season in the AHL. Kyle Jenkins went unsigned, and played college hockey in Canada after his junior career ended. His professional experience was limited to one ECHL season in 2020–21.

So, overall, not bad. Francis’ issue was less the selection of Fleury but drafting a defenseman at all; outside of first overall selection Aaron Ekblad, there was no defenseman who justified a top 10 pick selected in the first round. The regret will be looking at the picks immediately after Fleury — Nylander and Ehlers. Both forwards have been productive through their NHL careers, with Nylander just coming off an 80-point season in 2021–22. The rest of the draft class provided depth to the organization, with Nedeljkovic and Foegele both contributing to Canes playoff teams.

2015

1-5 Noah Hanifin, D, Boston College (H-East)
2-35 Sebastian Aho, RW, Karpat (Finland)
4-93 Callum Booth, G, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL)
4-96 Nicolas Roy, C, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL)
5-126 Luke Stevens, LW, Noble & Greenough School (High-MA)
5-138 Spencer Smallman, RW, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)
6-156 Jake Massie, D, Kimball Union Academy (High-NH)
6-169 David Cotton, C, Cushing Academy (High-MA)
7-186 Steven Lorentz, C/LW, Peterborough Petes (OHL)

2015 was the first true draft under Francis’ regime (Francis took over two months before the 2014 draft) and featured his best pick as a general manager, second round selection Sebastian Aho. Aho’s selection at the time was questionable, even for an early second rounder. Aho wasn’t even on many top prospect lists — TSN’s Bob McKenzie listed him as an “honorable mention” that didn’t make his top 75, while other experts left them off their list entirely (only ESPN’s Corey Pronman listed him as a first round talent, putting him at #28), so the selection of Aho and what he would turn into for the Hurricanes can only be considered a success for Francis and his scouting team. Aho currently ranks 9th in goals scored and 7th in points in franchise history, made more impressive considering this includes the Hartford Whalers years, and Aho has only spent six seasons with the franchise.

The star player for the franchise that was supposed to come out of this draft though wasn’t supposed to come from the 35th pick in the draft — it was supposed to come from the 5th. Noah Hanifin was generally ranked anywhere from 3rd to 5th in a draft that had Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel in it, and with the first two picks already decided, almost every draft expert had three players going next in some order — Dylan Strome, Mitch Marner, and Hanifin. Unlike 2014 where Francis drafted out of need, the selection of Hanifin at the time was picking the best available player. Hanifin would immediately go into the lineup as an 18-year-old, and has been an NHL-level player his entire career. He probably won’t ever be a superstar, but barring injury he’ll likely be the type of player who sticks around for a 15+ year career. A solid, safe pick.

Outside of those two, the draft wasn’t impressive. Only two other players from this draft class have cracked an NHL lineup — Nicolas Roy spent a few good years in Charlotte before being traded to Vegas, where he has worked his way into the lineup into a regular role for the Golden Knights in the 2021–22 season. Steven Lorentz was a 7th round selection who spent a season and a half in the ECHL before getting a regular role in the AHL, then spending the last two seasons in a bottom six role for the Hurricanes. Callum Booth played only 15 AHL games with the organization before his entry level contract expired and he was not brought back. Luke Stevens, son of former NHLer Kevin Stevens, was a second straight “legacy pick” of the son of a former Francis teammate (Glen Wesley’s son Josh was a 4th rounder in 2014). Stevens did not receive a contract offer after four years at Yale. Spencer Smallman battled injury issues during his pro years in the organization, and after providing depth at the AHL level, left the organization after the 2021–22 season. Jake Massie was dealt only a few months after being drafted, dealt to Chicago in a salary dump trade that brought the team Kris Versteeg and Joakim Nordstrom. David Cotton signed with the organization after four years at Boston College but after two seasons in the AHL did not receive a qualifying offer from the organization after his entry level contract expired and is currently a free agent.

2016

1–13 Jake Bean, D, Calgary Hitmen (WHL)
1–21 Julien Gauthier, RW, Val d’Or Foreurs (QMJHL)
2–43 Janne Kuokkanen, C, Karpat Jrs (Finland)
3–67 Matt Filipe, C, Cedar Rapids RoughRiders (USHL)
3–74 Hudson Elynuik, C, Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
3–75 Jack LaFontaine, G, Janesville Jets (NAHL)
4–104 Max Zimmer, LW, Chicago Steel (USHL)
5–134 Jeremy Helvig, G, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)
6–164 Noah Carroll, D, Guelph Storm (OHL)

With a team that was starting to improve somewhat and an additional first round pick acquired from the LA Kings in a 2015 trade deadline deal for Andrej Sekera, Francis and the Hurricanes found themselves in a position to either trade up — packaging two first round picks in order to get into the top 10 (or higher), or dealing off one of those first round picks to get a player ready to play now. The Hurricanes were a team that looked to be turning the corner with a 15-point increase in the standings. Instead, the Canes chose to stand pat, drafting at both spots 13 and 21 getting neither that top prospect nor a player that could help the current team on the ice.

Francis and his team seemed content to go after the best available player at 13, but at the same time, picking a defenseman in the first round for the third straight year would be comically frustrating. The team had managed to get a first round talent at forward the previous draft in Aho, and the NHL roster already had Justin Faulk (24), Jaccob Slavin (22), Brett Pesce (22), and Noah Hanifin (20) as regulars and earlier first round picks Ryan Murphy (23) and Haydn Fleury (20) ready to step in. You want the best player, but man — don’t let it be a defenseman.

However, the Canes — again, standing pat at 13, whether they chose to or not — saw three forwards drafted immediately in front of them, leaving them to choose defenseman Jake Bean from Calgary in the WHL. Bean’s selection wasn’t really a stretch as he was ranked around the same area as fellow defensemen Jakob Chychrun (drafted three picks later) and Charlie McAvoy (drafted one pick later), but just typing out that sentence makes you realize how costly that decision was. Chychrun made the Coyotes out of training camp his draft year, while McAvoy went back to college for a season before joining the Bruins after the end of the season as a black ace, and both players are now top pairing defensemen for their respective teams. Bean, in contrast, spent two slide years in junior, then spent two productive years in the AHL before spending a season in a 6th/7th defenseman slot with the Hurricanes in 2020–21 before being dealt to Columbus in the 2021 offseason for a second round pick.

Julian Gauthier, the second first round pick selected by Francis that draft, was seen as a prototype player who has size and talent but didn’t have the consistency to be a top tier prospect. Due to a quirk with his age, Gauthier only spent one more year at junior before going to the AHL, but was still able to slide his entry level contract two seasons. Gauthier struggled at times in the AHL and reportedly had issues with playing time, and was eventually dealt to the Rangers during the 2019–20 season, managing only five games for the Canes at the NHL level. It’s easy to say that Francis should have ignored the size of a player like Gauthier and instead look towards an undersized pure scorer like Alex DeBrincat there, but numerous other GMs made the same mistake, with DeBrincat dropping to the second round despite first round projections and two 50+ goal/100+ point seasons in junior.

Elsewhere, the 2016 draft looks dreadful. Trying to replicate his Finnish magic from the season prior, Francis drafted Janne Kuokkanen from the same organization that Aho came from. Unfortunately for Francis and the Canes, Kuokkanen was no Aho, and spent three seasons in the AHL before the Canes eventually dumped him off to New Jersey. He’d play 11 NHL games for the Canes. Four of the team’s nine draft choices (third rounders Matt Filipe and Hudson Elynuik, fourth rounder Max Zimmer, and sixth rounder Noah Carroll) didn’t sign with the organization. Third round goaltender Jack LaFontaine was signed midway through his final season at the University of Minnesota, played 2 games for the Canes, posted a sub .900 save percentage in 13 games in the AHL, and was not given a qualifying offer. Jeremy Helvig played in 6 AHL games over three seasons, and has not played professionally since 2021.

2017

1–12 Martin Nečas, C, Brno Kometa (Czech)
2–42 Eetu Luostarinen, C, KalPa Kuopio (SM-liiga)
2–52 Luke Martin, D, U. of Michigan (Big-10)
3–67 Morgan Geekie, C, Tri-City Americans (WHL)
3–73 Stelio Mattheos, RW, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
4–104 Eetu Makiniemi, G, Jokerit (Finland-Jrs)
6–166 Brendan De Jong, D, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
7–197 Ville Rasanen, D, Jokipojat Joensuu (Mestis)

2017 would be Ron Francis’ final draft, and the only one where his first pick wasn’t a defenseman. Martin Nečas was projected to go anywhere from pick 7 to pick 20 so his selection wasn’t a surprise. Nečas would impress early, making the team out of camp (albeit for one game), but would become a regular NHL player by the 2019–20 season, and is a legitimate middle six forward who plays on both the power play and penalty kill. A major shooting slump would see his numbers plateau in the 2021–22 season (he shot 8.8%, compared to 12.3% in 2020–21 and 18.2% in 2019–20), but he is still expected to be a major contributor to the Hurricanes moving forward.

Elsewhere, Eetu Luostarinen — the third straight Finn drafted by Francis in the second round — spent two years in Finland after being drafted before coming over to play hockey in North America. He spent less than a year with the organization (mostly at the AHL level) before being dealt to the Florida Panthers in a package of players to acquire Vincent Trocheck. Luostarinen has since settled into a bottom six role for the Panthers. Luke Martin is arguably Francis’ biggest draft miss. The University of Michigan defenseman played top line minutes for the Wolverines and despite his lack of productivity (one goal and six assists in 35 games) was seen as a second to third round selection. Francis, perhaps seeing comparisons made between Martin and Brett Pesce (who had similar numbers as a freshman at the University of New Hampshire), picked the defenseman with the 52nd pick. Martin never reached double digits in points in a season during his four years at Michigan, and was not offered a contract. He’s since spent two seasons playing mostly in the ECHL. Morgan Geekie was 2016 draft eligible but wasn’t selected, but the Canes made him a third round pick after a breakout season in junior that saw his point total jump 65 points. Geekie spent one more season in junior before joining the Canes organization in 2018. Geekie spent two seasons mostly in the AHL before becoming a fourth liner for the Hurricanes during the 2020–21 season, playing in 36 games for them that season. That season would be the last for Geekie in Carolina, as he was selected by the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 Expansion Draft, reuniting him with the man who originally drafted him, Ron Francis. Stelio Mattheos put together two 90+ point seasons in junior before joining the Hurricanes organization after his 2018–19 junior season, joining the Charlotte Checkers for the 2019 Calder Cup run. Soon after, he was diagnosed with testicular cancer and missed most of the following season, and played a more limited role this past season. He re-signed with the team for the 2022–23 season. Eetu Mäkiniemi spent four years in Finland after being drafted, only coming over to play in North America last season. The goaltender was impressive in limited action in the AHL but struggled with injuries, then was dealt this offseason to San Jose. Brandon De Jong didn’t receive a contract offer, and now plays college hockey for the University of Calgary. Ville Räsänen also didn’t receive a contract offer, and is playing minor league hockey in Finland.

Final stats

• 33 players drafted over four drafts.
• 3 (9%) currently with the organization (Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas, Stelio Mattheos)
• 16 (48%) played at least one game for the Hurricanes (Fleury, Nedeljkovic, Foegele, Wallmark, Bishop, Hanifin, Aho, Roy, Lorentz, Bean, Gauthier, Kuokkanen, LaFontaine, Necas, Luostarinen, Geekie)
• 7 (21%) played at least 50 games for the Hurricanes (Aho, Hanifin, Necas, Foegele, Fleury, Wallmark, Lorentz)
• 12 (36%) are signed to a one-way NHL contract for the 2022–23 season* (*Necas is currently unsigned at the time of this writing but is expected to be signed by the time the 2022–23 season begins)
• 9 (27%) had their rights expire without signing an entry level contract

Draft pick trade trees

In order to have a clearer picture of the effects of Ron Francis’ draft classes, we need to take a look at the players who were drafted and later traded out of the system. While Francis’ trades will be examined in a later post, there are a number of players who were drafted by Francis who were traded later by the Don Waddell-led franchise, and seeing the return those players brought can give additional insight into the value of those initial selections.

• Haydn Fleury: dealt to Anaheim at the 2021 trade deadline for defenseman Jani Hakanpää. Hakanpää would leave as an unrestricted free agent after the 2020–21 season after playing 15 regular season games and 11 playoff games with the team.
• Alex Nedeljkovic: dealt to Detroit during the 2021 offseason for Jonathan Bernier and a 2021 third round pick (#93 overall). Bernier would leave as an unrestricted free agent without playing a game for the team. The third round pick was used to select Aidan Hreschuk in the 2021 NHL Draft, who would then be traded at the 2022 trade deadline for Max Domi and the rights to Tyler Inamoto. Domi would leave the team as an unrestricted free agent after the 2021–22 season after playing 19 regular season games and 14 playoff games. Inamoto remains unsigned — his rights expire August 15th, 2022.
• Warren Foegele: dealt to Edmonton during the 2021 offseason for defenseman Ethan Bear. Bear is currently with the organization.
• Lucas Wallmark: dealt in a package including Erik Haula, Eetu Luostarinen, and Chase Priskie midway through the 2019–20 season for forward Vincent Trocheck. Trocheck would leave as an unrestricted free agent after the 2021–22 season after playing 135 regular season games and 31 playoff games.
• Clark Bishop: dealt to Ottawa for defenseman Max Lajoie before the start of the 2020–21 season. Lajoie is still with the organization.
• Noah Hanifin: dealt to Calgary during the 2018 offseason with Elias Lindholm for Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, and the rights to Adam Fox. Hamilton would leave as an unrestricted free agent after the 2020–21 season after playing 184 regular season games and 31 playoff games. Ferland would leave as an unrestricted free agent after the 2018–19 season after playing 71 NHL games and 7 playoff games. Fox’s rights would be traded to the New York Rangers for a 2019 second round pick (#37) and a 2020 second round pick (#41). The 2019 second round pick would be dealt to Ottawa for a 2019 second round pick (#44) and a 2019 third round pick (#83). The 2019 second round pick (#44) would be used to select Jamieson Rees, who is currently with the organization. The 2019 third round pick (#83) would be used to select Anttoni Honka, who is currently unsigned (rights expire 6/1/23). The 2020 second round pick (#41) was used to select Noel Gunler, who is currently with the organization.
• Nicolas Roy: dealt to Vegas with a 2021 fifth round pick (#154) during the 2019 offseason for forward Erik Haula. Haula would be dealt in a package including Lucas Wallmark, Eetu Luostarinen, and Chase Priskie midway through the 2019–20 season for forward Vincent Trocheck. Haula would play 41 regular season games for the Hurricanes organization.
• Jake Massie: dealt to Chicago before the beginning of the 2015–16 season with Dennis Robertson and a 2017 fifth round pick (#135) for Kris Versteeg, Joakim Nordstrom, and a 2017 third round pick (#88). Versteeg would be dealt to Los Angeles at the 2016 trade deadline for Valentin Zykov. Versteeg would play 63 regular season games for the Hurricanes organization. Zykov would be lost on waivers to Edmonton during the 2018–19 season after playing 25 regular season games with the organization. Joakim Nordstrom would leave as an unrestricted free agent after not receiving a qualifying offer after the 2017–18 season after playing 228 regular season games.
• Steven Lorentz: dealt to San Jose during the 2022 offseason with Eetu Mäkiniemi and a 2023 third round pick (#TBD) for Brent Burns and Lane Pederson. Both Burns and Pederson are currently with the organization.
• Jake Bean: dealt to Columbus during the 2021 offseason for a 2021 second round pick (#43). The second round pick (#43) would be used to select Aleksi Heimosalmi, who is currently with the organization.
• Julien Gauthier: dealt to the New York Rangers during the 2019–20 season for Joey Keane. Keane left the organization during the 2022 offseason to sign with Spartak Moscow in the KHL, however the Hurricanes retain his NHL rights.
• Janne Kuokkanen: dealt to New Jersey at the 2020 trade deadline with Fredrik Claesson and a 2020 third round pick (#83) for Sami Vatanen. Vatanen would leave as an unrestricted free agent after the 2019–20 season after playing zero regular season games and seven playoff games.
• Eetu Luostarinen: dealt in a package including Erik Haula, Lucas Wallmark, and Chase Priskie midway through the 2019–20 season for forward Vincent Trocheck.
• Eetu Mäkiniemi: dealt to San Jose during the 2022 offseason with Steven Lorentz and a 2023 third round pick (#TBD) for Brent Burns and Lane Pederson.

Four years after his last day as general manager, not much remains from Ron Francis’ four draft classes. In part 2, we will take a look at the signings and trades that Francis made in an attempt to bring his vision for the Carolina Hurricanes to fruition, and how those transactions shaped the team as it stands today.