Canes Things I Think I Think — January 31, 2024
Got some positive feedback on last weeks piece, so maybe we try this one again. Again, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter at @MrWorkrate with any compliments, criticisms, or suggestions.
On with the show!
Martin Nečas is going to cost more than anyone is comfortable with. When Owen Tippett signed an extension with the Flyers last week, the number made me pause for a minute — 8 years, $49.6 million, which comes out to a cap number of $6.2 million per season. When the news came out, Cory Lavalette of the North State Journal and the Athletic dropped this tidbit:
My first thought was that this ask was out of line — maybe $4.5 million like Bunting got, give or take. But the comparison it’s out of line at all — it just seems that way because of the direction the two players have gone in the last two seasons.
Tippett, a former 10th overall selection who was grinding on the fourth line for Florida until a playoff push since him to Philadelphia for Claude Giroux, and he’s been on the rise ever since. Tippett scored 27 goals and 49 points in his first full season in Philadelphia, and is on a 30 goal pace once again this season. Nečas, selected two picks after Tippett in that same draft, has had more NHL experience, with this season being his fifth season as an NHL regular, and saw his numbers hover around the 40 point mark his first three seasons, until last season where Nečas had 28 goals and 43 assists and truly looked like he was breaking out. Instead, Nečas has battled injuries and inconsistency and doesn’t look like he’ll match the numbers he put up last season, but even his underwhelming season is a 55-point pace, equal to that of Tippett. Yet, Tippett looks like he’s breaking out, and Nečas looks “disappointing.”
Owen Tippett got paid, and Martin Nečas is going to get paid too.
Keep the three-headed goalie monster. (#fornow) Pytor Kochetkov came back to backup Antti Raanta Saturday as recent waiver pickup Spencer Martin sat in the press box, then was sent down to Chicago Sunday. Don’t read much into the demotion — Kochetkov likely won’t play any AHL games, but sending a player who doesn’t need waivers to the minors saves cap dollars each day he’s not on the roster, which can be handy come deadline time. I suppose it’s possible he could play in Chicago — sort of a rehab assignment without actually making it a “rehab assignment” since an official rehab assignment doesn’t provide cap benefits.
So barring a setback (concussions be crazy), the Canes will have three goalies once the All Star break concludes and the team returns to a regular schedule. Carrying three goaltenders would put the Canes at 23 players on the roster, which is the maximum, but since the team is pretty consistent with their lineups, they’re not really handcuffed for space there, with the ability to place a player on IR always there in case the team needed an additional spot (because someone would have to be hurt if there was going to be a callup.)
I don’t have a problem with this, because I still want to get a longer look at Spencer Martin. If he is a capable backup goaltender (as he more than showed in his start against Boston), he’s valuable to keep around, especially with the fragility of Raanta, the uncertainty of concussions, and the growing unlikelyhood that we see Frederik Andersen play again this season. Who knows — he might end up being another Curtis McElhinney.
A reminder — any time you see a “top 10” or “bottom 10” list online, it’s generally garbage. Listicles and the like are engagement farming to get you to quote-tweet it to dunk on it or to start a general argument, causing the post (and the account that posted it) to get a massive amount of exposure for either picking low hanging fruit or just being dumb.
What caused this bitterness? This tweet that’s been popping up in my timeline:
I mean there’s a mix of “bad” contracts here, from bad players having one good year and cashing out because of it (Korpisalo), depth guys actually getting paid on the market (Clifton, Holl), one year lottery tickets that didn’t pay off (Klingberg, Brown), a good vet getting that one last big contract from a bad team (Killorn), and the obsessive need for grit/physical play on a skill-based team (Reaves). But, because this is a Canes-based article, we focus on Orlov.
I don’t think anyone is going to argue that Orlov’s been playing like a $7.75 million defenseman, but at the same time Orlov’s not being asked to play like a $7.75 million defenseman. The Hurricanes went into the 2023 offseason with their first and second pairings set in stone and the assumption that Jalen Chatfield would fit in as the right side of the third pair. The belief would be that the Hurricanes would pick up a veteran left-shot third pairing guy that wouldn’t cost a lot, killed penalties, and hopefully didn’t try to end any marriages. They instead got Orlov, the best available defenseman in free agency, and plugged him into the third pairing role. They essentially bought a Ferrari to run errands in.
Orlov’s overall numbers are pretty baseline right now, but they’re fine, especially for a third line defenseman playing around 16 minutes a game. Of course held up to a dollars-to-output rating, it’s not going to look great, but I don’t think the Hurricanes are regretting the signing, especially this offseason, when Brady Skjei is looking for a $40 million+ payday and the Canes don’t feel like their backs are up against the wall. Speaking of re-signing players…
…Stefan Noesen’s next contract is going to be a steal — if he stays in Carolina. Noesen has to be one of the best examples of a player who fits perfectly into a system with his level of play for Rod Brind’Amour’s Hurricanes. Two seasons ago, Noesen was a Chicago Wolf, where he put up great AHL numbers, albeit as a 28/29-year-old in the American. The team re-signed him to a two year deal, played well enough to make the team without a set role out of 2022 training camp, then watched as Ondřej Kaše’s head fell off after one game. Taking what would have been Kaše’s spot, Noesen soon became indispensable, providing valuable fourth line grinding minutes while contributing on the power play. Now in the second year of that AHL depth deal, he’s going to get a nice raise.
The question is how much of a raise is Noesen going to want, and are the Canes willing to pay it? I don’t think a contract for Noesen is going to look ridiculous, likely 2–3 years and around $3 million per, which I think the Canes would be happy with. There’s always the possibility that he hits the market though and some team gives him more term or higher AAV and the Canes let him walk. It’s a tough game of chicken — do the Canes think they could “create” a player like they did with Noesen, and does Noesen think he can keep up his level of production for another organization and another coach? The Canes are Noesen’s 7th organization — consistency might be a selling point for Noesen, and a little extra term for a player who’ll be 31 when he hits the market might hit just right, while also allowing his cap number to go a little lower. If the team can sign him for 3 years/$7.5 million total or even 4 years/$8 million, I think they’ll be happy.
That’s going to be it for this week — the All Star break kind of took away some content — but I was glad to see the Canes Bash is back this year. The former “Casino Night” got rebranded a few years back, phasing out a lot of the actual casino aspects for more non-gambling elements, like foosball, ping pong, and giant Connect Four which kind of took some of the luster off of the event (to me, at least.) The description on the Canes Bash page seems to imply that the ping pong might be gone:
Mark your calendars! The 2024 Canes Bash, presented by AMT Group, will be taking over PNC Arena on Sunday, March 3rd. Join us for an evening in Raleighwood with food, specialty drinks, live entertainment and casino games. Carolina Hurricanes players, coaches and staff will also be in attendance for the fun-filled night.
I’ve been to a handful of these and they’re always a good time. It’s always pricey, and this year even more so ($350 per person with a $50 discount for STM), but proceeds go to the Carolina Hurricanes Foundation, so you get a little tax write-off there. The players and other members of the organization who come are mixed in their interactivity (I mean, they’re human) but a good word of advice is if you’re chill, they’ll be chill. The Canes will be in a playoff position this year, so you won’t get the chaos of a drunk Jiri Tlusty getting texts from his agent who’s sending him rumors of where he’s getting dealt in the next few days, but it still should be a good time. Learn more here.
More next week? Sure, let’s say that, and thanks for reading!
