Canes Things I Think I Think — February 14th, 2024
Skipped a week last week — I’m sure many of you noticed. Anyway, let’s get back to it. As usual, if you have any ideas, hit up @MrWorkrate on Twitter.
Brett Pesce’s doing his damnedest to make himself affordable this offseason. Last night, the Pesce/Brady Skjei pairing didn’t have their best night in a 4–2 loss to the Dallas Stars. The GameScore painted an ugly picture:
And, well, that’s what’s going to happen when you’re on the ice for three Dallas goals and none of the Carolina ones. Pesce hasn’t had a great statistical season, even for him, with seven points (three goals, four assists) and a minus-4 through 42 games. While we can argue that plus/minus is a made up stat (except when it comes to my kid playing D in youth travel), Pesce’s on a pace for 12 points, which would be his worst total ever. Pesce isn’t a point guy though (last season’s 30 was a career high), though his shooting percentage actually a little higher than his career total, so it’s just the assists that aren’t coming for whatever reason.
The GameScore might be a little deceiving as well, here. Though it looked like Pesce/Skjei had a poor game, it may not have been entirely their fault. Pesce’s expected goals for with him on ice last night was 1.02, with expected goals against was 0.51, meaning the shots being taken by the Hurricanes were twice as good as the ones being shot by Dallas (Skjei had an even better differential — 1.27 to 0.69.) Sometimes you play well, and the bounces don’t go your way, or your goalie has an off night.
All of which to say, while the easy numbers might say Pesce is having a rough year, and it’s possible that this view might knock down Pesce’s market value (Dom Luszczyszyn’s market value for Pesce this season is $3.1 million.) People don’t like to pack and move, so could the Canes potentially get Pesce to sign a one or two year deal around his current cap hit to allow the Canes some roster flexibility while Pesce hopes to bounce back statistically to get a bigger deal down the line? It might be a pipe dream, but sometimes the band wants to stick together.
Martin Necases don’t grow on trees, but neither do franchise goaltenders. Elliotte Friedman on Jeff Marek’s radio show was talking about Nashville possibly shoping goaltender Juuse Saros and spitballed the idea that Nashville, looking for a high end offensive player, could look at Carolina and Martin Necas. This, naturally, set Canes Twitter on fire.
Martin Necas has been a polarizing guy through nearly his entire Hurricanes career. A high risk/high reward player, Necas can take over when his stick is on the puck and use his speed and vision to create a high-risk scoring chance out of nothing, but in the same moment can be a defensive liability or just disappear completely. After scoring 71 points last season he’s on a pace for 57 this season, which is still good, but not the step forward everyone thought he was taking last season.
The problem with Necas is his contract. The two-year bridge deal Necas signed coming off his entry level deal ends this coming offseason. The Hurricanes have two more seasons of control before Necas can be an unrestricted free agent, so although the team can roll the dice, take Necas to arbitration this offseason, and “see what happens”, it’s not going to be in their best interest, so the club needs to figure out whether Necas is going to be in their long-term plans, and get him signed. As we discussed two weeks ago, the Owen Tippett extension (8 years, $49.6 million, $6.2 AAV) is probably the number Necas’ representation is probably starting with. Do the Canes feel comfortable with that type of commitment? If not, it might be better to make this someone else’s problem sooner than later.
As for Saros, there’s some grumbling that he “hasn’t been great” this season, but you have to remember Nashville’s defense is Roman Josi, Ryan McDonagh, a radio contest winner and several children in a trenchcoat. In his first three seasons as a #1 goaltender after the retirement of Pekka Rinne, Saros finished in the top 6 for the Vezina Trophy all three seasons, and received Hart votes in two of those three seasons. One could argue that Saros was the top goaltender in the NHL during that time, and even if you don’t want to accept that, that’s some impressive company to keep:
I doubt seriously, outside of a Patty Roy-esque demand to get out of town, none of those four other guy are going to be available without giving up half your roster. A one-for-one deal giving up a very good forward for one of the best goaltenders in the league doesn’t come along every day.
That said, Saros has a contract issue as well. Signed through this season and next, Saros would be an unrestricted free agent come the 2025 offseason, and if the Canes couldn’t sign him to an extension, he becomes a one+ season rental, and at a major cost.
This would be very much a “hockey trade”, and sometimes you have to bite the bullet to win a championship. I think I’d do it.
I know it’s painful at this point, but I think you have to give Jesperi Kotkaniemi one more season before making a not-so-hard choice. KK hasn’t been a very good player in the last few months, and it’s been reflected in his usage, dropping back down to the 4th line, and you start to look at a $4.82 million cap hit and less than 10 minutes of ice time in five of his last seven games and you start to wonder if this is all worth it.
It’s easy to forget though that Kotkaniemi started the season playing like the 2C that the team originally envisioned him being. In 22 games in October and November, Kotkaniemi had 8 goals, 7 assists, and was shooting at a 16% clip. Since then, he’s had one goal and two assists in 30 games, shooting 2.1%. That’s a hell of a funk, and I think there’s a decent amount of it in his head. Kotkaniemi, who scored two-thirds of his points last season at home, only has six points in 27 home games this season. Could he be feeling pressure to live up to his contract in front of his own home crowd?
A buyout has been mentioned by more than a few fans, and it is tempting — since Kotkaniemi is under 25, the savings on his contract would be 2/3 instead of 1/3, spread over — yeesh — 12 seasons. That hit, however, comes out to $835k each season, which amounts to around a league minimum plug sitting in the press box. That’s around a $4 million savings a season until 2030, and we could all be underwater by then. That said, there’s still the memory of the KK who scored 32 points in the last three months of last season and 15 in the first two of this season. He’s slumping hard, but the player is (probably) still there. Unless you can work out a deal this offseason to replace him and need that $4 million right away, he’s worth one more season. If Rod Brind’Amour thought he was shot, he’d probably be gone by now. He’s still only 23 — give him a little time.
Finally, Whalers Night came and went, pissing off old hockey men and the state of Connecticut. It’s fun as a retro night, but I wouldn’t be heartbroken to have seen the WhalerCanes for the last time. The organization fully rolls into the retro gimmick, from promotional photos to making the scoreboard appear like the old LED versions from the 70s and 80s.
But it’s really the retro part that makes it fun — otherwise it’s just another jersey. Let’s face it — the Canes have no desire to embrace their previous Hartford heritage. Outside of statistical references, the org’s pre-Carolina history rarely is mentioned, and no imagery that isn’t Hurricane-clad is seen in PNC Arena. The only Whalers who played in the Hurricanes Alumni game this past season were Steven Rice and Jeff Daniels, both of whom also played for the Hurricanes. The complaint factory in New England that talks about how Whalers Night is just a cash grab to sell jerseys and merch — I mean, they’re not wrong.
The Whalers thing has kind of run its course. The Canes have used both green and white Whalers jerseys now, along with the weird retro reverse grey ones that no one really liked but by hockey law no one’s allowed to say anything bad about a Whaler jersey. It’s going to grow old eventually, and maybe it’s just time to put it away. Maybe for a retro night do some sort of “faux throwback” like teams that play in the Winter Classic do, creating a Canes jersey like if the team existed in the 30s. It was fun playing with your previous identity for a while (and trust me, I love a green uniform), but now that the current incarnation of the organization has existed longer than the old one, maybe it’s time to embrace the team that’s been here, and hopefully will remain for years to come.
